The latest EUROCONTROL Traffic Scenarios for the period April to December 2022 predict steady growth between April and peak-summer, reaching 89% of 2019 traffic by August in our Base Scenario, with this level gently rising to end the year at 92%.
“Aviation has continued to recover well over the last few weeks, and there has been a steady climb from 68% in January rising to 79% by the start of April compared to 2019 levels, even factoring in the impact on the network and on fuel prices of the unprovoked aggression by Russia against Ukraine. Airlines are adding lots of capacity, and some airlines are already outperforming their pre-pandemic levels. People are showing that they are really keen to fly – many for the first time since before the pandemic began. Hitting 90% or more of 2019 traffic at peak summer moments is firmly on the cards, and we expect holiday destinations and some other parts of the network to exceed 100% of their 2019 levels.
Clearly, however, there are still some downside risks related to continued geopolitical tensions that could further impact fuel prices and economic conditions, as well as the possibility of new COVID variants. We’re also seeing staff shortages in parts of the industry, particularly at airports in key roles such as airport screeners or ground handlers, and this needs to be carefully managed. Should any of these factors come into play, traffic could slide towards the levels envisaged in our Low Scenario,” stated Eamonn Brennan, Director General, EUROCONTROL.
EUROCONTROL’s Traffic Scenarios are generated in close collaboration with the airline sector, and draw on planned capacity levels as well as the latest actual data and historical trends produced by the EUROCONTROL Network Manager.
Our Base Scenario foresees traffic returning to around 90% of 2019 levels by summer 2022 and remaining steady until the end of the year, with most intra-European flows back to normal or even exceeding pre-pandemic levels, and long-haul flows progressively returning.
The Low Scenario envisages a slower recovery by the summer to a maximum of 83% of 2019 levels, with some risks materialising to create a post-summer dip, and only a partial recovery by year-end.
The High Scenario assumes a rapid acceleration to 95% of 2019 levels over the summer, with most global travel flows resuming, no further adverse impacts post-summer, and traffic rising at year-end to head towards pre-pandemic levels.