China to be first $1 trillion market: Boeing

China will become the first trillion dollar aviation market according to US airframer Boeing.

Boeing projects a demand for 6,810 new aircraft in China over the next 20 years in its annual China Current Market Outlook (CMO), estimating the total value of those new aircraft at $1.025 trillion

“As China transitions to a more consumer-based economy, aviation will play a key role in its economic development,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Because travel and transportation are key services, we expect to see passenger traffic grow 6.4 per cent annually in China over the next 20 years.”

Boeing predicts China will need 5,110 new single-aisle aircraft through 2035, accounting for 75 per cent of the total new deliveries. Low-cost carriers and full-service airlines have been adding aircraft and expanding new point-to-point services to cater for both leisure and business travel demand from a rising middle class in China and throughout Asia.

Tinseth said the backlog from Chinese customers demonstrates that the new 737 MAX 8 and the current Next-Generation 737-800 are at the heart of the single-aisle market.

Boeing forecasts the widebody fleet will triple in size, requiring 1,560 new aircraft such as the 787, 777 and 777X.  This year’s forecast reflects a continued shift from very large aircraft to efficient new small and medium widebody aircraft.

China’s single-aisle fleet currently accounts for about 18 per cent of global single-aisle aircraft; however, China’s widebody fleet only represents approximately 5 per cent of the global widebody segment.

“The continuing expansion of China’s middle class, coupled with new visa policies and a wide range of widebody aircraft with new technologies, capabilities and efficiencies, gives us every reason to expect a very bright future for China’s long-haul market,” said Tinseth.

Driven by China’s growing e-commerce business – already the largest in the world – air cargo is expected to become a key driver for the continuous growth of aviation in China, with the need for 180 new freighters and 410 converted freighters.

New Aircraft China Deliveries Through 2035

Aircraft type

Seats

Total deliveries

Dollar value

Regional jets

90 and below

140

$10B

Single-aisle

90-230

5,110

$535B

Small wide-body

200-300

870

$240B

Medium wide-body

300-400

630

$220B

Large wide-body

400 and above

60

$20B

Total

———–

6,810
(17% of world total)

$1.025T
(17% of world total)

Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of $5.9 trillion for 39,620 new commercial aircraft to be delivered during the next 20 yearsThe complete forecast is available at www.boeing.com/cmo.

Boeing claimed its jets are the mainstay of China’s air travel and cargo system with more than 50 per cent of all the commercial jetliners operating in China are Boeing aircraft.

Meanwhile, China has a component role on every current Boeing commercial aircraft model – the Next-Generation 737, 747, 767, 777, as well as the world’s most technologically advanced aircraft, the 787 Dreamliner. Over 9,000 Boeing aircraft fly throughout the world with integrated China-built parts and assemblies.

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